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The 20th Century was marked by surprisingly little advancement in firearms technology, with most of the really significant advances clustered right around the beginning: smokeless powder, autoloaders, silencers. Somebody observed a while back that most people today could get by perfectly OK with firearms from pre-WW2 catalogs. He was right. For the military, the assault rifle and the RPG are notable small-arms advancements that grew out of WW2. For the rest of us, the 98 Mauser is still hard to improve upon. So I'm looking forward and wondering what's in store, trying to spot some trends. Here are some things I'm pondering. . . . . Easy predictions first: Both wildcatters and established arms companies will carry on their tradition of re-inventing the 30-06 Springfield, over and over (and over and over, ad nauseum). New bolt action designs will appear, some of them innovative in various ways, but somehow people will keep buying near-copies of the 98 Mauser. The M1911 pistol will be a big seller, too. Shotguns will continue to look pretty much like they always have. Silencers. These are really useful, as they not only muffle the muzzle blast but also act as efficient flash hiders and muzzle brakes. Obviously silencers have been around for a long time, but they never seem to be used to their potential for a number of reasons: maintenance problems, mounting problems, expense, weight and bulk, and legal restrictions. Silencer technology was moribund for a long time and wandered down a number of dead end paths. It's only in the last couple of decades that silencer designs have started to really advance again, and we are now seeing remarkably small, lightweight, durable and effective units. The main obstacles to their widespread use at this point are the legal ones. Sabots. In theory sabots should improve the efficiency of many small-caliber rifles. Aside from the Remington accelerator cartridges, and heavy use of sabots in muzzle-loading rifles, I haven't seen much serious research into sabots. Problem: They aren't compatible with silencers, for reasons which should be fairly obvious if you think about it. There are also questions about how to get best accuracy out of sabot cartridges. I still think there's potential here. Sub-calibers. A sub-caliber is basically anything smaller than 22 caliber. People have been experimenting with these ever since WW2. The recent success of 17 HMR should heat up interest in the tiny bores. These are great for varmints, and the smaller-capacity ones (like 17 Hornet or 19 Calhoon), with their low report and low richochet potential, should be good for using in relatively built-up areas: a category more and more of the country falls into. Lately the 19-223 Calhoon and 20 Tactical (with 204 Ruger joining soon) have been showing rather amazing performance and appear ideal for coyotes. Caseless ammo. This technology is real, as H&K and Voere both proved. Although most people know about the H&K G11 rifle, I think Voere did a lot more to prove the viability of this concept. Their VEC-91 rifle and Usel cartridge had a number of advantages: 1) electric ignition, 2) a round cartridge instead of square, 3) an extraction groove, 4) they reached the market and were actually sold to real shooters, albeit not on a huge scale. I think Voere missed a huge opportunity, and could have made a great impact if they had marketed their product right and positioned it as a high-tech gadget, instead of trying to sell bolt-action, blued-steel-and-walnut rifles and traditional European styling. What were they thinking? Somebody else will eventually pick up the technology, it's simply too good to never be seen again. Electronic fire control. The only gun I've seen with all-electronic fire control is my Drozd Bumblebee
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