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================================================================                       The Coming Technological Singularity:                       How to Survive in the Post-Human Era                                 Vernor Vinge                       Department of Mathematical Sciences                          San Diego State University                            (c) 1993 by Vernor Vinge                (Verbatim copying/translation and distribution of this               entire article is permitted in any medium, provided this                             notice is preserved.)                     This article was for the VISION-21 Symposium                        sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center                 and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.                It is also retrievable from the NASA technical reports                          server as part of NASA CP-10129.                     A slightly changed version appeared in the                     Winter 1993 issue of _Whole Earth Review_.                                       Abstract                    Within thirty years, we will have the technological               means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after,               the human era will be ended.                    Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can               events be guided so that we may survive?  These questions               are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further               dangers) are presented.          _What is The Singularity?_               The acceleration of technological progress has been the central          feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge          of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise          cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of          entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means          by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another          reason for having confidence that the event will occur):             o The development of computers that are awake and               superhumanly intelligent. (To date, most controversy in the               area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence               in a machine. But if the answer is yes, we can , then there               is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed               shortly thereafter.             o Large computer networks (and their associated users) may wake               up as a superhumanly intelligent entity.             o Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users               may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.             o Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural               human intellect.               The first three possibilities depend in large part on          improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has          followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades [16]. _base_d          largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than          human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles          Platt [19] has pointed out the AI enthusiasts have been making claims          like this for the last thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a          relative-time ambiguity, let me more specific: I'll be surprised if          this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)               What are the consequences of this event? When greater-than-human          intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid.          In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve          the creation of still more intelligent entities